Sunday, April 21, 2013

Dan Loeb Shouted Down (sort of.....)

ok people, i'm back after a long - read 'default from the inception of this blog' - hiatus.  here's what's been on my mind.  it's a little disjointed, and feels like the start of something that i'd like to write more of later, so for the moment bear with me:

lately, the CII (council of institutional investors http://www.cii.org/) - private/public pension plans, retirement funds, etc - gathered for its annual meeting in DC to discuss all things pension-ey:  corporate governance, due diligence (translation: is my investment manager bernie madoff?) managing & meeting liabilities (translation: how the fucking hell will we pay for the retirement benefits of, well, everyone) and of course, everyone's favorite, achieving higher returns on investments which, thanks to wild underfunding, the 2008 financial crisis and a shit ton of marketing by the alternative asset management industry, have been increasingly heaped in private equity and hedge funds. 

among the many luminaries of this year's speaker faculty was dan loeb, founder and billionaire CEO of third point capital - a hedge fund.  Taibbi recently wrote about the sick audacity of loeb, an opponent of defined benefit pension plans, who had intended to speak to the CII in order to raise money from the very pension funds/retirement plans whose fundamental design and utility he was gunning to shred. 

just FYI, a defined pension fund plan is one that returns a portion of one's income during retirement, rather than simply returning private savings plus earnings on investments from a private account, such as a 401K.  us social security is the most recognizable example, followed by CalPERS (california public employee retirement system), CalSTRS (california state teachers retirement system) and other PERS.

facing organized questioning on his policy stance from numerous pension fund officers, loeb dropped out of the program.

it's a delightful little headline, and who knows - loeb might have had interesting things to say about the industry and he might have also been inclined to address the outrageous under performance of most (not all) hedge funds since 2007 - but the fact remains that there is something rotten in the state of alternative investment hype. 

some basic background on hedge funds  - broadly defined as 'giant pool of money with official permission to gamble on a broadly approved collection of financial instruments.'  to make money, hedge funds place bets and charge a two-tiered fee for their efforts: two percent on net assets under management and 20% performance on all investments  - the infamous 2 & 20. 


loeb, along with many of his fellow hedge fund moguls and private equity cousins, solicit pension fund money while simultaneously lobbying for the deeper evisceration of public finances.  an end to defined benefit plans and a broader conversion to investment-based (defined-contribution) plans.  lucrative for investment managers, and probably neatly profitable for people living well above a teacher's salary. 

now, if it were the case (as it sometimes is) that pension funds were earning FAR MORE on their alternative investments (pe/hf) than the rest of their portfolios, then we'd be in an even deeper quagmire.  MORE ON THIS IN A LATER POST.  but as it is, MOST hedge funds have utterly failed to outperform the S&P 500 and practically every other stock index.  meaning, pension funds can earn more money investing in stocks picked, at random, from the wall street journal, than by investing in most 2 & 20 hedge fund schemes. 

and yet, managers like loeb lobby to undermine the retirement security of public workers on one hand, while raking in fees on their investments with the other - often without delivering on promises of competitive returns. 





broad view to be developed in future posts:  public finance was whipped by a whirlwind financial crisis, brought about by institutions patently too large to fail or to police (another post!).  Facing a retiring baby generation of baby boomers and bleeding capital to fraud (another post - read LIBOR, etc), catastrophic incompetence and amoral profiteering (read 2008) and a shrinking tax base, they are encouraged to stake their survival on investments with the very institutions that lobby hardest against the regulation and public infrastructure that preserve and provide retirement capital.

let's not even get into the private equity & jobs question (ANOTHER POST!)









Thursday, April 18, 2013

Gun Control: a reminder that, in the Senate, 1 person=1 vote does not apply

I was just reading the NY Times Article about how gun control never had a chance, and it got me thinking about how the elephant in the room - that American Citizens are not equally represented in the Senate - was not mentioned once.  I don't fault author Jennifer Steinhauer for leaving out this fact.  After all, what is to be done? But still, I thought it was worth taking a closer look to see if unequal representation of voters in the senate is, in part, to blame for this enormous legislative failure.

 Near the beginning of the article, author Jennifer Steinhauer quotes President Obama citing a now widely-publicized statistic: that 90% of Americans support more gun control legislation. How is it that the senate can't pass legislation that's supported by over 90% of Americans, Obama asked.

Steinhauer's answer is, "the [same] reason Democrats have avoided gun control fights for years: combination of the political anxiety of vulnerable Democrats from conservative states, deep-seated Republican resistance and the enduring clout of the National Rifle Association."

That makes sense, especially when you look at the number of democratic senators who represents states which voted against President Obama in the 2012 election.  But there is a big piece that's missing: U.S. Voters are not equally represented in the senate. Each state, regardless of population size, has 2 senators.  That means that the state with the smallest population, Wyoming (which has .18% of the country's population) has the same number of senators as the state with largest population, California (which has 11.91% of the country's population) each receive 2 senators.  Therefore, the person living in Wyoming's vote "matters" 66 times more than the person in California's vote. Another way to think about this unequal distribution is that less than 20% of the country's population elects 50% of the U.S. Senators.

So how did this weighted vote system affect gun control?

There were 21 states in which both senators from that state voted "No" on the legislation. The states that those Senators hail from contain, cumulatively, 33.08% of the U.S. population, based on the 2010 Census.   And those 21 states control 41% of the Senate vote (because they each have two senators: 21x2=42). So, that's not that bad, right?  33% of the population controlling 41% of the vote.  It's not totally equal, but it's nothing to write home crying about.  However, when Texas, the country's second most populous state (which contains 8.04% of the U.S. population), is removed from the analysis, the numbers are a bit more disturbing.  Then, there are 20 states with the cumulative population of 25.04% and 40% of the senate votes. 25% of the population controlling 40% of the vote.  And, because of the modern use of the filibuster, all you need in the senate to keep a bill from passing is 41%.  They only need one more vote.  And they had it.

That's why something that 90% of the U.S. population approves of didn't pass the Senate.  Because those 90% are not all equally represented.  25% of the U.S. population has the ability to control the Senate.  

That makes no damn sense.

Sources:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/despite-tearful-pleas-no-real-chance.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&hp
 http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=113&session=1&vote=00103#state
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population






Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Revelation:

You put the contact solution in the contact case BEFORE you take out your contacts. That way, you can still see the squirting contact solution and correctly aim it in to the case. I wish I'd figured that out 8 years ago. I would have saved a lot of contact solution and a lot of time cleaning up crusty dried solution remnants from the bathroom counter.

I used to watch my mom put the contact solution in first and I thought she was such a weirdo. I finally understand, Mom. I finally understand.